Pandemic Emergency May Be Officially Over, but Education’s Long COVID Continues
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The official end of the COVID-19 public health emergency might have been this spring, but the consequences for education stemming from the pandemic are far from over.
Recent research conducted by my colleagues at NWEA reveals that the impacts of COVID-19 are still being felt throughout the American school system. Karyn Lewis and Megan Kuhfeld, researchers at NWEA, examined test score data from approximately 6.7 million students in grades 3 to 8 across 20,000 public schools who took MAP Growth assessments for reading and math during the last academic year. They then compared the rate of academic growth during the 2022-2023 school year to pre-pandemic trends.
Their findings indicate that in almost every grade, last year’s achievement gains fell short of what was typical before the pandemic. Since students are now behind where they were prior to the pandemic, they would need to make progress greater than the usual rate in order to catch up. However, according to NWEA data, this is not happening. Older students’ progress towards full recovery has stalled over the course of the 2022-2023 school year.
The graph below illustrates the results for reading (blue) and math (magenta). While third graders showed slight signs of improvement, with above-average achievement gains, students in grades 4 to 8 made slower progress compared to the typical pace observed before the pandemic.
NWEA researchers now estimate that, on average, students will need interventions and support equivalent to an additional 4.1 months of schooling to reach pre-COVID levels in reading and 4.5 months in math. Middle schoolers are particularly behind, requiring an extra 9.1 months of learning in math and 7.4 months in reading compared to their older peers just a few years ago.
The progress of students from all races and ethnicities was below pre-COVID averages in the 2022-2023 academic year, but the problem is more pronounced among historically underserved students. Based on the significant amount of unfinished learning by spring 2023, NWEA researchers estimate that Hispanic and Black students still need an additional 6.4 and 6.2 months of math instruction, respectively, to catch up.
At this time last year, there were some signs of cautious optimism in the NWEA data. However, progress has now stalled for many learners, indicating that the road to recovery may be longer than initially anticipated. The recent NAEP scores also confirm the extent to which students have fallen behind in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic.
The question, of course, is why? While our national data cannot provide a definitive answer, our partnerships with districts and states across the country offer some insight. Educators and leaders are doing the right things by analyzing local data to identify students who require additional support and implementing evidence-based interventions. However, this process is complex and scaling up these programs takes time. The challenges of implementing recovery efforts have been well-documented, and it may take years for even the highest-quality programs to show improvements in student test scores.
Given these realities, it is clear that recovery efforts must continue urgently. While the data is valuable in understanding recovery trends, education leaders should rely on their own information about student progress to target support to those who are furthest behind. States and districts will also require ongoing resources to develop long-term, sustainable recovery plans that are commensurate with the scale of the challenge.
The Elementary and Secondary School Emergency Relief funds provided by the federal government have been crucial in supporting initial recovery efforts. However, there is only one more school year before these funds expire. Federal policymakers have granted flexibility to use the funds after September 2024 (as long as they are obligated prior to that date), but more support is needed. Our data, along with others, confirms that recovery will be a multi-year endeavor that extends well beyond 2024. Federal and state policymakers must provide sustained funding to enable school systems to rise to this challenge.
Educational institutions are making progress, but achieving full recovery for all children will require continuous effort and investment. The available data shows that the extent of the crisis is significant, necessitating a comprehensive and consistent approach. It is crucial for leaders at the federal and state level to maintain their patience and focus, and guarantee that schools receive the required resources and assistance to aid students in their long journey towards recovery.
